Latest International Trade Publications
In a flagship new report for Policy Exchange, former senior Irish Ambassador Ray Bassett argues that a failure to reach a benign compromise between the EU and the UK in Brexit negotiations risks seriously damaging the Irish economy. So far, the Irish Government has sided firmly with the EU27, but Bassett believes this may be a mistake given how intimately the Irish and British economies are connected. In the event of the UK leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market, Ireland may be forced to follow suit, potentially even seeking its own “Irexit”.
The models used to assess the economic impact of Brexit were misleading, according to new analysis by Dr Graham Gudgin, Policy Exchange’s new Chief Economics Adviser and the co-author of the report. At the time, the projections made by the Treasury, OECD and IMF were used by the then government and Remain campaign to argue that the British economy would face a significant and permanent loss of income in the event of a vote to leave. A careful analysis of the gravity trade economic models used to generate these pessimistic projections suggests that the impact of Brexit on our economy will be much less significant than the economic consensus constructed at the time of the referendum.
With a foreword by former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson, and a postscript by former Foreign Secretary David Owen, this major contribution to the public debate sets out proposals for a ‘Clean Brexit’. It is written by Policy Exchange’s Chief Economic Advisor, Dr Gerard Lyons, and leading Telegraph economics commentator, Liam Halligan
Latest International Trade Blogs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUuR3aSakKY Lessons from New Zealand for the UK’s post-Brexit Trade Strategy New Zealand was once Britain’s Farm on the other side of the world. In the 1950s the UK bought almost all of New Zealand’s agricultural exports. Somewhat...
Geoff Raby — Policy Exchange’s Head of Trade Policy — and Peter Grey discuss processes for negotiating trade agreements
The EU’s Ambiguous Legal Position in the WTO Reduces the Uncertainty over Britain’s Post-Brexit Trading Relationships
Dr Geoff Raby — Policy Exchange’s Head of Trade Policy — concludes that ‘the hurdles at the WTO that worry many may not be so insurmountable after all’
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