Crisis and Opportunity in the Middle East

UK Policy Options towards Iran in 2025

January 13, 2025

This report sets out the historically weak position of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and urges the UK Government to exploit this weakness by applying maximum pressure on the regime.

Backed by former UK Cabinet Secretary and National Security Adviser Lord Sedwill GCMG, the report argues that the collapse of Iran’s regional proxy network, its deepening economic crisis, and the unreliability of its major partners in Russia and China, mean that it may be at a turning point. The UK must seize the moment by implementing, alongside key partners, maximum pressure policy on the regime – which has a long track record of sponsoring terrorism, conducting kidnappings, and planning assassination attempts on British soil.

The paper also argues that adopting a more robust approach to the regime will likely foster goodwill with the incoming American Administration – many of whose senior designated officials have advocated for a tough policy on the Islamic Republic.

In a foreword to the report, Lord Sedwill GCMG writes:

“Too often, the signs of imminent change are clear only in retrospect. As we cannot predict events, the task for analysts and policymakers is to prepare against a range of contingencies.  As this excellent new Policy Exchange report sets out, one of those contingencies is that the most pivotal country in the Middle East, Iran, might be approaching a turning point. The Iranian regime – a source of great suffering for the Iranian people, and grave security threats to the region, the UK and our partners – has suffered an annus horribilis.

While aligning with Trump II’s maximum pressure against this regime, the UK should insist that a successor, even one still clothed in the robes of the Islamic Republic, which is willing to liberalise at home and behave responsibly abroad, can earn a place in the international community. From crisis emerges opportunity. It is an opportunity for the UK to lead.”

The launch of this report was covered by:

Related Publications

Authors

Marcus Solarz Hendriks

Head of National Security Unit

Harry Halem

Senior Research Fellow, National Security Unit

Sir John Jenkins

Senior Fellow


Join our mailing list