This report examining the public’s attitudes towards crime and policing is the latest in Policy Exchange’s Portrait of Modern Britain project.

The report introduces the concept of the ‘Toughness Gap’ – the difference between how tough on crime respondents view the police as being and how tough on crime respondents want the police to be – and finds it exists for every demographic group, every economic group and supporters of every political party.

Revealed is that every demographic group and supporters of every political party want the police to be tougher on crime – with Reform UK presenting a serious electoral risk to the Labour Government on law and order.

The report also reveals that in a third of cases over the last eight years, adults (18 years old or over) who have been convicted of repeatedly carrying an offensive weapon or bladed article have not been sent to prison – despite legal provisions which require this in all but the most exceptional cases. In 2024 as many as 40% of adults repeatedly caught carrying a knife did not receive an immediate prison term.

Contrary to the prevailing narrative, ethnic minorities are found to report far higher levels of confidence and satisfaction in the police than white respondents. Black respondents have a ‘net satisfaction’ with the police’s response to reported crime of plus 22% – compared to minus 21% for white respondents – a huge 43% gap in ‘net satisfaction’ between black and white respondents. This shows that black respondents are far more likely to be satisfied than white respondents when they report a crime.

Those who are economically struggling are the group with the largest ‘Toughness Gap’. Compared to other economic groups they also have the lowest levels of confidence in the police to keep them safe from crime and satisfaction with the police once a crime has been reported.

The report comes against a backdrop in which overall crime levels have increased by 12% in the last year (to September 2024) and where many types of crime that affect people’s day to day lives have shown sharp increases:

• Robbery has increased from 62,354 offences in 2021 to 82,437 in the year to September 2024 – an increase of 34.1% over the period.
• Knife crime has increased by over 88% between 2015 and the year to September 2024.
• Police recorded incidents of shoplifting increased by 23% between 2023 and the year to September 2024 – to the highest levels recorded for over 20 years since current records began.
• Fraud has increased by 19% over the last year to September 2024.

The launch of this report was covered by:

• The Telegraph
• The Daily Mail
• The Daily Express
• GB News