The UK has an important and long-standing role in NATO as the ‘second centre of nuclear decision-making’ in the Alliance. This role, developed to deter the Soviet Union, holds that because the UK possesses operationally independent nuclear weapons, no state can attack the alliance without considering the independent response of both the U.S. and the UK nuclear arsenals. This increases deterrence by complicating the decision-making of an adversary, which reduces the likelihood that they will consider acting against the Alliance. 

Amidst persistent and growing global threats and an increasingly uncertain U.S. commitment to European security, the ‘second centre of decision-making’ has taken on an increased importance in Alliance security. However, to ensure that it remains effective in this role, the UK must strengthen and diversify its nuclear arsenal in support of the Alliance. The UK government’s decision to procure F-35A fighter aircraft, and to join NATO’s dual-capable aircraft (DCA) mission, is a welcome first step. However, given the size and scale of Russia’s theatre nuclear forces and the threat it poses to Europe, this does not go far enough. 

This paper reconsiders the DCA decision through the lens of the UK’s ‘second centre’ role, arguing that, to deter Russian and prevent nuclear coercion, the UK must redevelop a sovereign second nuclear weapons capability and ‘return to the sub-strategic nuclear game’. It first examines the rationale and purpose for a second system, before highlighting several of the most promising options for the UK to redevelop a second nuclear capability, such as an air-dropped or air-launched weapon for the RAF, or a nuclear cruise missile for use on Royal Navy attack submarines.

The launch of this report was covered by:

• Express

Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission

As the UK enters a decisive decade for its energy and economic future, the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission will continue to set out the bold, practical reforms required to rebuild a world-class nuclear enterprise, cut through the inertia of the past two decades, and deliver the nuclear renaissance Britain urgently needs.

The Commission will produce a series of discussion papers and research notes addressing the most pressing questions facing the UK’s nuclear enterprise. Drawing together expertise from across government, industry and academia, its research and events will span subjects from the nuclear deterrent and the nuclear threat landscape to regulation, the nuclear industrial base and dual-use technologies. This breadth will enable the Commission to propose in a final publication a wide array of answers to the considerable challenges at the heart of energy and national security policy.

It should be noted that all research papers produced under the banner of the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission are intended for discussion and do not necessarily represent the views of every member of the Commission, or the Commission as a whole.

Members of the Commission

• Rt Hon Lord Case CVO PC, former Cabinet Secretary (Chair)
• Dr Won-Pil Baek, Senior Research Fellow at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
• Professor Wyn Bowen, Head of the School of Security Studies at KCL and Professor of Non-Proliferation and International Security
• Joshua Buckland, Director of Strategy and Policy at EDF and a Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange
• Tom Greatrex, CEO, Nuclear Industry Association; former Shadow Minister for Energy of Great Britain
• Lt Gen H R McMaster (USA, Ret.), 25th U.S. National Security Advisor
• Frank Miller, former Special Advisor on nuclear matters to President George W. Bush and Nuclear Defence Specialist at the Department of Defence
• Professor Dame Fiona Murray DCMG CBE, Associate Dean for Innovation at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Vice-Chair of the Board of Directors of the NATO Innovation Fund
• Professor Sir David Omand GCB, former Director of GCHQ 
• Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT GCMG PC, former NATO Secretary General and Secretary of State for Defence
• Hon William J Schneider Jr, former Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs
• Air Marshal Edward Stringer CB CBE, former Director-General of the Defence Academy and former Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff 
• Paul Taylor CBE, former Director General of Strategic Technologies at the Ministry of Defence
• Rt Hon Anne-Marie Trevelyan, former Minister of State for Indo-Pacific and Secretary of State for International Trade
• Dr Heather Williams, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies
• Admiral Rt Hon Lord West of Spithead GCB DSC PC, former First Sea Lord