The world is experiencing levels of international instability not seen since the Cold War. Russian expansionism, China’s growing nuclear arsenal, and lingering third-state threats have returned deterrence to the heart of global politics. Equally, the United States’ focus is shifting away from Europe and toward the Pacific and the Western Hemisphere. Taken together, these developments raise complex questions for both UK security and the NATO alliance. 

However, the UK’s nuclear deterrence doctrine has not kept pace with these developments. This paper, co-authored by former Chief of the Defence Staff Lord Stirrup for Policy Exchange’s Nuclear Enterprise Commission, notes the UK has not significantly revised its nuclear deterrence doctrine since the end of the Cold War. It revisits the work of Sir Michael Quinlan, former Permanent Secretary at the MOD, and one of the great nuclear strategic thinkers of the Cold War. A figure with transatlantic influence, Quinlan’s theory of nuclear deterrence helped shape allied deterrence doctrine for decades, emphasising the strong ‘cognitive’ element in deterrence. Possessing nuclear capabilities alone is not enough; adversaries must genuinely believe the UK might use these weapons under extreme conditions. 

Deterrence, therefore, begins in the mind: the links of ends, ways and means through serious strategic thinking to achieve deterrent effect in the national interest. While the modernising of Britain’s nuclear capabilities – such as acquiring F-35A fighter jets – forms a necessary and valuable element in this deterrence ‘package’, their value stems from rebuilding strategic expertise and credibility. This stems from a solid theoretical foundation, based on the world as it is, and the challenges shaping international security. To that end, this paper revisits the theoretical foundations of British deterrence doctrine in a multipolar world through the lens of one of its greatest Cold War minds.

Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission

As the UK enters a decisive decade for its energy and economic future, the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission will continue to set out the bold, practical reforms required to rebuild a world-class nuclear enterprise, cut through the inertia of the past two decades, and deliver the nuclear renaissance Britain urgently needs.

The Commission will produce a series of discussion papers and research notes addressing the most pressing questions facing the UK’s nuclear enterprise. Drawing together expertise from across government, industry and academia, its research and events will span subjects from the nuclear deterrent and the nuclear threat landscape to regulation, the nuclear industrial base and dual-use technologies. This breadth will enable the Commission to propose in a final publication a wide array of answers to the considerable challenges at the heart of energy and national security policy.

It should be noted that all research papers produced under the banner of the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission are intended for discussion and do not necessarily represent the views of every member of the Commission, or the Commission as a whole.

Members of the Commission

• Rt Hon Lord Case CVO PC, former Cabinet Secretary (Chair)
• Dr Won-Pil Baek, Senior Research Fellow at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
• Professor Wyn Bowen, Head of the School of Security Studies at KCL and Professor of Non-Proliferation and International Security
• Joshua Buckland, Director of Strategy and Policy at EDF and a Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange
• Tom Greatrex, CEO, Nuclear Industry Association; former Shadow Minister for Energy of Great Britain
• Lt Gen H R McMaster (USA, Ret.), 25th U.S. National Security Advisor
• Frank Miller, former Special Advisor on nuclear matters to President George W. Bush and Nuclear Defence Specialist at the Department of Defence
• Professor Dame Fiona Murray DCMG CBE, Associate Dean for Innovation at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Vice-Chair of the Board of Directors of the NATO Innovation Fund
• Professor Sir David Omand GCB, former Director of GCHQ 
• Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT GCMG PC, former NATO Secretary General and Secretary of State for Defence
• Hon William J Schneider Jr, former Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs
• Air Marshal Edward Stringer CB CBE, former Director-General of the Defence Academy and former Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff 
• Paul Taylor CBE, former Director General of Strategic Technologies at the Ministry of Defence
• Rt Hon Anne-Marie Trevelyan, former Minister of State for Indo-Pacific and Secretary of State for International Trade
• Dr Heather Williams, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies
• Admiral Rt Hon Lord West of Spithead GCB DSC PC, former First Sea Lord

The launch of this report was covered by:

• The Telegraph
• The Independent
• The Critic
• GB News
• POLITICO’s London Playbook
• Times Radio