The UK’s decision to rejoin NATO’s dual-capable aircraft (DCA) mission presents opportunities for the United Kingdom in the realm of nuclear signalling – a task it has not had to think about for almost thirty years. Nuclear signalling involves the largely non-verbal dimensions of deterrence communication, such as hardware, deployments and exercises by a state’s military capabilities. During a crisis with a nuclear-armed adversary, the visible arming, dispersing or forward basing of air- or ground-launched systems may be used to signal intent to an adversary. These movements are also often accompanied by political declarations and statements by state and alliances, such as NATO, matching credible military power to political will and intentions. 

This paper argues that the UK’s existing deterrence posture, based on its Trident-armed submarines and continuous at sea deterrence, largely avoids the task of nuclear signalling. The return to the DCA will change this. This paper examines what nuclear signalling is and sets out the relationship between signalling and targeting, providing a typology of different types of signalling with a range of historical examples. It then offers a series of suggestions to revive the practice of nuclear signalling in the UK, and options to strengthen the UK’s signalling and deterrence capabilities in a crisis. These include procuring HIMARS mobile missile launchers or similar rapidly deployable Deep Precision Strike capabilities to hold Russian nuclear radar sites at risk in a crisis, alongside considering the redevelopment of a stand-off air-launched or even a sea-launched nuclear missile to augment the UK’s Trident force. 

The launch of this report was covered by:

• Express

Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission

As the UK enters a decisive decade for its energy and economic future, the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission will continue to set out the bold, practical reforms required to rebuild a world-class nuclear enterprise, cut through the inertia of the past two decades, and deliver the nuclear renaissance Britain urgently needs.

The Commission will produce a series of discussion papers and research notes addressing the most pressing questions facing the UK’s nuclear enterprise. Drawing together expertise from across government, industry and academia, its research and events will span subjects from the nuclear deterrent and the nuclear threat landscape to regulation, the nuclear industrial base and dual-use technologies. This breadth will enable the Commission to propose in a final publication a wide array of answers to the considerable challenges at the heart of energy and national security policy.

It should be noted that all research papers produced under the banner of the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission are intended for discussion and do not necessarily represent the views of every member of the Commission, or the Commission as a whole.

Members of the Commission

• Rt Hon Lord Case CVO PC, former Cabinet Secretary (Chair)
• Dr Won-Pil Baek, Senior Research Fellow at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
• Professor Wyn Bowen, Head of the School of Security Studies at KCL and Professor of Non-Proliferation and International Security
• Joshua Buckland, Director of Strategy and Policy at EDF and a Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange
• Tom Greatrex, CEO, Nuclear Industry Association; former Shadow Minister for Energy of Great Britain
• Lt Gen H R McMaster (USA, Ret.), 25th U.S. National Security Advisor
• Frank Miller, former Special Advisor on nuclear matters to President George W. Bush and Nuclear Defence Specialist at the Department of Defence
• Professor Dame Fiona Murray DCMG CBE, Associate Dean for Innovation at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Vice-Chair of the Board of Directors of the NATO Innovation Fund
• Professor Sir David Omand GCB, former Director of GCHQ 
• Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT GCMG PC, former NATO Secretary General and Secretary of State for Defence
• Hon William J Schneider Jr, former Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs
• Air Marshal Edward Stringer CB CBE, former Director-General of the Defence Academy and former Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff 
• Paul Taylor CBE, former Director General of Strategic Technologies at the Ministry of Defence
• Rt Hon Anne-Marie Trevelyan, former Minister of State for Indo-Pacific and Secretary of State for International Trade
• Dr Heather Williams, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies
• Admiral Rt Hon Lord West of Spithead GCB DSC PC, former First Sea Lord