Nuclear weapons are central to the United Kingdom and the NATO Alliance, and have helped shaped British statecraft and deterrence for decades. However, their value rests largely on a nebulous concept: ‘credibility’. What makes for a ‘credible’ nuclear deterrent, and, in an increasingly uncertain world, how can the UK strengthen the credibility of its deterrence and take a more active role in leading the Alliance?

The paper argues there are five core features that make deterrence credible, all of which must be pursued successfully and simultaneously. These are deterrent capability; the ‘deterrence system’ of logistics, supply chains, and communications; the political resolve of a government to use force; the UK’s alliance commitments; and clear communications and signalling to both adversaries and allies. Whilst the UK used to know how to do all five of these, today it struggles to maintain adequate capabilities. This report unpacks each of these areas in turn and presents a range of solutions for policymakers to restore credible deterrence today.

The launch of this report was covered by:

• The Telegraph
• The Express
• London Loves Business

Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission

As the UK enters a decisive decade for its energy and economic future, the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission will continue to set out the bold, practical reforms required to rebuild a world-class nuclear enterprise, cut through the inertia of the past two decades, and deliver the nuclear renaissance Britain urgently needs.

The Commission will produce a series of discussion papers and research notes addressing the most pressing questions facing the UK’s nuclear enterprise. Drawing together expertise from across government, industry and academia, its research and events will span subjects from the nuclear deterrent and the nuclear threat landscape to regulation, the nuclear industrial base and dual-use technologies. This breadth will enable the Commission to propose in a final publication a wide array of answers to the considerable challenges at the heart of energy and national security policy.

It should be noted that all research papers produced under the banner of the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission are intended for discussion and do not necessarily represent the views of every member of the Commission, or the Commission as a whole.

Members of the Commission

• Rt Hon Lord Case CVO PC, former Cabinet Secretary (Chair)
• Dr Won-Pil Baek, Senior Research Fellow at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
• Professor Wyn Bowen, Head of the School of Security Studies at KCL and Professor of Non-Proliferation and International Security
• Joshua Buckland, Director of Strategy and Policy at EDF and a Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange
• Tom Greatrex, CEO, Nuclear Industry Association; former Shadow Minister for Energy of Great Britain
• Lt Gen H R McMaster (USA, Ret.), 25th U.S. National Security Advisor
• Frank Miller, former Special Advisor on nuclear matters to President George W. Bush and Nuclear Defence Specialist at the Department of Defence
• Professor Dame Fiona Murray DCMG CBE, Associate Dean for Innovation at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Vice-Chair of the Board of Directors of the NATO Innovation Fund
• Professor Sir David Omand GCB, former Director of GCHQ 
• Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT GCMG PC, former NATO Secretary General and Secretary of State for Defence
• Hon William J Schneider Jr, former Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs
• Air Marshal Edward Stringer CB CBE, former Director-General of the Defence Academy and former Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff 
• Paul Taylor CBE, former Director General of Strategic Technologies at the Ministry of Defence
• Rt Hon Anne-Marie Trevelyan, former Minister of State for Indo-Pacific and Secretary of State for International Trade
• Dr Heather Williams, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies
• Admiral Rt Hon Lord West of Spithead GCB DSC PC, former First Sea Lord