In January of 2025, President Trump ordered development and deployment of a ‘Golden Dome’ for America, a next-generation missile defence shield to protect the U.S. from strategic attacks. This paper examines the potential threats and opportunities to the credibility of the UK’s existing deterrent, Trident, as the U.S. pursues its Golden Dome system. It provides an overview of what Golden Dome is and what the deployment of this technology will mean for the UK and its European NATO allies. With the U.S. investing in advanced missile defences, both Russia and China – who have developed a range of Integrated Air and Missile Defence systems – may look to expand their own anti-ballistic missile systems in response.

If the UK were to be excluded from the protection of Golden Dome, this could pose problems for the viability of Trident and may require additional investment in both existing UK nuclear capabilities and future systems. As a result, the paper concludes with a series of policy recommendations for the Government, foremost amongst which is for close UK cooperation with the United States as it develops and deploys this technology and explores what other measures it can develop to counter advances in Russian air and missile defence systems. To prevent advanced air defences from undermining Trident in the future, the Government should look to arm its forthcoming Dreadnought submarines with a full complement of 12 missiles, rather than the proposed 8, and even consider the viability of redeveloping a second nuclear weapons capability to support Trident. This would ensure the UK deterrent remains credible against both current and future improvements to Russian air and missile defences systems. 

The launch of this report was covered by:

• Express

Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission

As the UK enters a decisive decade for its energy and economic future, the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission will continue to set out the bold, practical reforms required to rebuild a world-class nuclear enterprise, cut through the inertia of the past two decades, and deliver the nuclear renaissance Britain urgently needs.

The Commission will produce a series of discussion papers and research notes addressing the most pressing questions facing the UK’s nuclear enterprise. Drawing together expertise from across government, industry and academia, its research and events will span subjects from the nuclear deterrent and the nuclear threat landscape to regulation, the nuclear industrial base and dual-use technologies. This breadth will enable the Commission to propose in a final publication a wide array of answers to the considerable challenges at the heart of energy and national security policy.

It should be noted that all research papers produced under the banner of the Policy Exchange Nuclear Enterprise Commission are intended for discussion and do not necessarily represent the views of every member of the Commission, or the Commission as a whole.

Members of the Commission

• Rt Hon Lord Case CVO PC, former Cabinet Secretary (Chair)
• Dr Won-Pil Baek, Senior Research Fellow at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
• Professor Wyn Bowen, Head of the School of Security Studies at KCL and Professor of Non-Proliferation and International Security
• Joshua Buckland, Director of Strategy and Policy at EDF and a Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange
• Tom Greatrex, CEO, Nuclear Industry Association; former Shadow Minister for Energy of Great Britain
• Lt Gen H R McMaster (USA, Ret.), 25th U.S. National Security Advisor
• Frank Miller, former Special Advisor on nuclear matters to President George W. Bush and Nuclear Defence Specialist at the Department of Defence
• Professor Dame Fiona Murray DCMG CBE, Associate Dean for Innovation at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Vice-Chair of the Board of Directors of the NATO Innovation Fund
• Professor Sir David Omand GCB, former Director of GCHQ 
• Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT GCMG PC, former NATO Secretary General and Secretary of State for Defence
• Hon William J Schneider Jr, former Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs
• Air Marshal Edward Stringer CB CBE, former Director-General of the Defence Academy and former Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff 
• Paul Taylor CBE, former Director General of Strategic Technologies at the Ministry of Defence
• Rt Hon Anne-Marie Trevelyan, former Minister of State for Indo-Pacific and Secretary of State for International Trade
• Dr Heather Williams, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies
• Admiral Rt Hon Lord West of Spithead GCB DSC PC, former First Sea Lord