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Two of Policy Exchange’s leading experts on Irish Affairs, former Irish diplomat Ray Bassett and former Special Adviser to the First Minister of Northern Ireland Dr Graham Gudgin, evaluate the Stage 1 Brexit Agreement published last week. Although welcome progress has been made, key issues remain outstanding and have the capacity to present difficultly if not resolved.
Following his evidence session to the Lords EU Energy and Environment Sub Committee, Energy and Environment Research fellow Joshua Burke reflects on the opportunities and challenges facing the UKs trade in waste post Brexit. The impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers on the regulatory, spatial, environmental and economic dimensions that govern the UK’s trade in waste are examined in the context of Refuse Derived Fuel.
In judging this Budget, context is everything. In Part One of our analysis Policy Exchange looked at the forecasts which govern what the Chancellor can do, and what he cannot. We now turn to look at the decisions taken at the Budget.
The Irish border issue is now taking a central place in the Brexit negotiations. Conventional wisdom in both Dublin and Brussels is failing to recognise that the border issue can be solved. Policy Exchange’s Chief Economic Adviser Dr Graham Gudgin, one of the leading authorities on cross border economics, explains that technological developments mean frontiers are already more than fixed lines on a map – and that elements in the Irish Government and the Commission are being far too slow to acknowledge this, preferring instead to engage in “Brit-bashing”.
In Part One of Policy Exchange’s analysis of the Budget, Chief Economic Adviser Dr Graham Gudgin looks at the forecasts produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility. These official forecasts are the basis for spending decisions today and planning for the future – which means they must be robust. As we saw with the overly pessimistic Treasury forecasts regarding Brexit, they are not always right.
Beware excessive “declinism” – we’re putting more money into UK defence but American warnings must also be heeded
Policy Exchange’s Gabriel Elefteriu warns that we should beware the declinist narrative that too often pervades discussion of UK defence capability. He cautions this can too often verge on a self-fulfilling prophesy and we should acknowledge that the Government is now increasing defence spending. Equally, it is important that American warnings are headed, particularly on the retention of specific capabilities.
‘Without sound finance, you cannot have a strong economy with which to fund public services’ – the moral the Chancellor should choose for his Budget
Policy Exchange’s Research Fellow in Economics, Mike Taylor, sets out the guiding principles with which to judge the Autumn Budget. Highlighting the importance of fiscal sustainability, Mike cautions those seeking to use the Japanese experience to justify higher borrowing, pointing out the limits of any comparison with the UK.
A sensible deal on the Northern Ireland border is very achievable – Brussels and Dublin should stop playing games.
Policy Exchange’s Chief Economic Adviser, Dr Graham Gudgin, sets out how a workable deal on the Northern Ireland border could be delivered – without the return of a ‘hard border’. He says that the Irish Government and European Commission are using the issue for short-term political gain.
Ahead of the Budget, Policy Exchange’s Head of Housing and Urban Regeneration Susan Emmett wrote for Huffington Post about how “Money alone will not fix the housing market”. She says “Local backing for developments is more likely if they have regard to the aesthetics and impact on local infrastructure” and calls for “consistent direction, not only from Whitehall but also from all levels of government up and down the country”.
The Chancellor should not give in to the temptation to “give what amounts to protection money to the union lobby” and increase school funding in next week’s Budget, argues Policy Exchange’s Head of Education and Social Reform John Blake in the Times. “We can have world-leading schools without breaking the bank, but not if our school system believes there will always be more money whatever happens.”